My home is located at the SW intersection of Suttenfield and Warsaw Streets, in Fort Wayne, Indiana. I have defined the boundaries of my neighborhood as being Creighton Avenue (two blocks to the north), Pontiac Street (two blocks to the south), Lafayette Street (two blocks to the west), and Hanna Street (one block to the east.)
My neighborhood comprises twelve city blocks, and covers an area of approximately 0.056 square miles. The entire City of Fort Wayne covers 79.12 square miles. Therefore, my neighborhood equals approximately 0.07% of the City. All things being equal, my neighborhood should then experience about 0.07% of the total crime in Fort Wayne. Apparently though, all things are not equal.
Determining the exact ratio of crime in my neighborhood to crime in the entire city is problematic because I do not have all the information needed. For example, every month, the police department lists over 450 incidents as having occurred at 1300 E Creighton Ave, which is the Fort Wayne Police Headquarters. Although that address is probably legitimate for what comprises the bulk of those incidents (video pickup), the number of vice, narcotics, and violent offenses listed there would indicate that these crimes actually occurred somewhere else. Since the video pickups are not really a crime in themselves, and since the other incidents occurred in undisclosed locations, I have factored these out of the total calls.
There is another category of calls that are listed as either being outside the city, or as location unknown. These number approximately 35 per month. Finally, there are approximately 70 incident reports per month which are never publicly released. I have factored out all of these incidents for the same reasons as stated above. After adjusting for the misinformation provided by the Fort Wayne Police Department, I can begin to arrive at a rough approximation of the true ratio of criminal activity in my neighborhood as compared to that of the entire city.
Using a six-month sample period covering the dates from May 1, 2008 to October 31, 2008, I come up with the following data:
Incident reports in my neighborhood……………...…………626
Incident reports in entire city..………..….……….……..103,866
Incident reports listed at 1300 Creighton Ave….....……2,878
Incident reports OC or location unknown……………………431
Incident reports not publicly released………………………..420 (approximate)
Now, using 626 as the numerator, and 100,135 as the denominator, I come up with a neighborhood to city crime ratio of 0.0062. What this means is that my neighborhood, which comprises 0.07% of the city, experiences 0.62 percent of the City’s total crime.
In simple terms, my neighborhood experiences about nine times as much crime as the average Fort Wayne neighborhood does. Every day (on average) there are at least three instances of reportable police activity within two blocks of my home.
In the previous 24 posts, I have included the FWPD activity logs for my neighborhood for the past two years. Take a look at them and see how they compare to your neighborhood. I already know how they compare to Chief York’s neighborhood, and that explains why he doesn’t think we have a gang problem. After all, people aren’t shooting guns behind his house, or selling drugs in front of it, so what’s the problem?
My neighborhood comprises twelve city blocks, and covers an area of approximately 0.056 square miles. The entire City of Fort Wayne covers 79.12 square miles. Therefore, my neighborhood equals approximately 0.07% of the City. All things being equal, my neighborhood should then experience about 0.07% of the total crime in Fort Wayne. Apparently though, all things are not equal.
Determining the exact ratio of crime in my neighborhood to crime in the entire city is problematic because I do not have all the information needed. For example, every month, the police department lists over 450 incidents as having occurred at 1300 E Creighton Ave, which is the Fort Wayne Police Headquarters. Although that address is probably legitimate for what comprises the bulk of those incidents (video pickup), the number of vice, narcotics, and violent offenses listed there would indicate that these crimes actually occurred somewhere else. Since the video pickups are not really a crime in themselves, and since the other incidents occurred in undisclosed locations, I have factored these out of the total calls.
There is another category of calls that are listed as either being outside the city, or as location unknown. These number approximately 35 per month. Finally, there are approximately 70 incident reports per month which are never publicly released. I have factored out all of these incidents for the same reasons as stated above. After adjusting for the misinformation provided by the Fort Wayne Police Department, I can begin to arrive at a rough approximation of the true ratio of criminal activity in my neighborhood as compared to that of the entire city.
Using a six-month sample period covering the dates from May 1, 2008 to October 31, 2008, I come up with the following data:
Incident reports in my neighborhood……………...…………626
Incident reports in entire city..………..….……….……..103,866
Incident reports listed at 1300 Creighton Ave….....……2,878
Incident reports OC or location unknown……………………431
Incident reports not publicly released………………………..420 (approximate)
Now, using 626 as the numerator, and 100,135 as the denominator, I come up with a neighborhood to city crime ratio of 0.0062. What this means is that my neighborhood, which comprises 0.07% of the city, experiences 0.62 percent of the City’s total crime.
In simple terms, my neighborhood experiences about nine times as much crime as the average Fort Wayne neighborhood does. Every day (on average) there are at least three instances of reportable police activity within two blocks of my home.
In the previous 24 posts, I have included the FWPD activity logs for my neighborhood for the past two years. Take a look at them and see how they compare to your neighborhood. I already know how they compare to Chief York’s neighborhood, and that explains why he doesn’t think we have a gang problem. After all, people aren’t shooting guns behind his house, or selling drugs in front of it, so what’s the problem?
Phil:
ReplyDeleteGlad to see you "back in the saddle"...and the numbers you quote sound about right to me (even though I don't live IN your immediate area).
Similar stats bear out the crime ratio in MY neighborhood, as well.
Rusty must be living in the state of DENIAL, instead of INDIANA...LOL!
I wouild propose a great "experiment"...
Allow the city "top cops" an "opportunity" to "live" (read exist, like we do) in OUR parts of the city, and THEN...be able to claim that crime is going DOWN (when you can see and hear the reverse to be true).
Shouldn't cost all that much to grab a cheap-ass hovel, and set up shop, right?
Nah, they wouldn't go for that...the ethnic communities would be all over that like white on rice.
(even though it IS still "criminal" profiling)
Would be an intresting scenario, though.
B.G.
Phil,
ReplyDeleteWhile we're throwing the "mis" prefix around so readily (misinformation?), I feel the need to point out that you seem to have "mis"-categorized a significant number of the incidents listed as "crimes." Clearly, the family fights, traffic accidents, alarms, traffic stops, suspicious person complaints, open doors, "meets", runaways and the like are not necessarily crimes. As a matter of fact, a significant majority of them are not actual crimes, but issues of public peace and order, which the police department is obligated to investigate.
You have repeatedly complained about the police department's perceived neglect neglect of your neighborhood, yet you actually seem to be using their recently-increased enforcement activity (i.e. traffic stops and suspicious person investigations) as ammunition in your repeated attacks. I recall in your April 28th post that you "hold FWPD largely responsible for the changes here," (if that's not a grudging and backhanded compliment, I don't know what it is) when commenting on the significant improvement in the environment in your neighborhood, yet you continue to find fault with the very people who have responded to your complaints and made a sizable (and apparently noticeable) effort to clean up your neighborhood.
One would think that the increase in officer-initiated activity on the part of the officers who patrol your neighborhood would merit something other than repeated negativity and criticism, but that does not seem to be the case. You've posted negativity when officers didn't do what you wanted, and now that they are, you misrepresent their enforcement efforts as crime and continue your negative approach...just what is it that you want? (By the way, there's no need to create a pseudonym for me; your neighbors already know who I am, and I have no need to be shy about who I am or how I earn my living. You've already seen the results of some of my work.)
Bob,
ReplyDeleteThe truth is, the drug problem is truely a national epidemic. There are simply not enough police officers available to meet the goals set by our political policy of drug eradication.
If an officer moved into my home or in any other heavily trafficked area, the guys would simply relocate to another neighborhood.
There are only two possible solutions to this problem. Either liberalise our drug control policies, thus taking the criminal element out of it, or seriously increase funding for law enforcement.
Sergeant Ritchie,
ReplyDelete1. You are certainly correct that much of what is listed in the activity log does not necessarily represent crime. But if I were to factor out all the traffic stops, meets, and other less serious actions in my neighborhood, I would also have to do the same for the rest of the city to keep things on an even keel. I did not take the time to research this, but I assume that these two actions would pretty much cancel each other out. In other words, I believe that the ratio of criminal activity in my neighborhood compared to the entire city is similar to the ratio of total police activity between these two areas.
2. While many of the activities listed are probably not related to the gang and drug problems, which are my main focus, they still point to a level of violence and criminal behavior that is disturbing. There is certainly no way I can blame your department when one of my neighbors beats his wife or their kids repeatedly run away from home. These problems, however, point to a disturbingly high level of human dysfunction in neighborhoods such as mine. I know that this is what is largely responsible for creating the neighborhood environment which supports the drug and gang problems here.
I think you mistakenly assume that all my ranting is necessarily directed at your department. Much of it is aimed at some of my neighbors as well. I realize that many of them knowingly allow (if not encourage) their kids to sell drugs. Yet when your officers stop them for this very activity, they claim you’re just harassing them for no reason. Many times, I have actually heard these same neighbors complain that your department is not doing enough to quiet things down here.
Seriously, they actually look me straight in the eye and say what equates to “The police should harass other people’s children (drug dealers) more and harass my children (drug dealers) less.” I have heard them say as much to some of your officers as well, and it really is difficult to not laugh or shout at them in response to such idiocy. I know that the problems here stem from my neighbors, and not from your department.
3. Regarding my April 28th post, I think you misunderstood my message. There was nothing in that post which criticized your department’s present actions. My comparison of the current approach to the past was simply intended to send your department the message that I think what you are doing here now is having a positive effect. There was nothing backhanded meant by that.
If you believe that my stating that the way your department has dealt with things in the past was flawed is a slight of some sort, then so be it. You know full well how this neighborhood has operated for the past decade. I have seen and experienced enough to know that your department can not fully absolve itself from at least partial responsibility for this mess. I would find it difficult to imagine that your position does not allow you to reach the same conclusion.
This comment is continued - see below
4. I just added another post this afternoon which does recognize that the amount of crime and other police activities in my neighborhood has significantly diminished. I intended to add that yesterday as well, but I ran out of time. While you will still see a slightly negative thread running through this post, I can only justify it by saying it is what it is. While the criminal activity in my neighborhood has dramatically declined from last year, it is still significantly worse than the average neighborhood. Those are the facts, and no amount of denial by Chief York can change that.
ReplyDelete5. Regarding my policy of using pseudonyms, there are several reasons for that, most of which I believe you would understand and even agree with if I explained in greater detail. As frustrating as my comments have been for you and others in your department, I think you would have to realize that it would have been a lot worse for many officers if I did not post about them anonymously. Obviously, I am not shy about attaching my identity to my beliefs, and I appreciate that you seem to think the same way.
6. My frustration over the situation here is not entirely directed at your department, and most of what is directed there is aimed at those who manage the department rather than those who actually do the hard work. However, I realize that no matter how I word my posts, a slur against the department will be seen to some degree as a slam against every individual officer.
My lack of recent blog activity has largely been a nod to the good work your department has been doing here. Even though I still have some frustrations about how the situation is managed, I have been trying to keep quiet and just let you and your fellow officers do your job unimpeded. But it was Chief York’s ridiculous comment that seriously understated the criminal problems being faced by this city that kind of threw me into a tailspin.
I sincerely wish I knew of a way to say that I think your boss is an idiot without offending you personally, but I am simply not that good of a writer.